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BURMESE VERSION




COMMENTARY
Climate Change and Aung San Suu Kyi
By AUNG ZAW Friday, November 13, 2009

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The regime in Burma is like climate change—if you don’t contain it now, it could be catastrophic.

Seeing Burma going nowhere over the past decades, friends and foes of the regime have reached the consensus that the country needs to make meaningful progress.

To achieve momentum in the land of “standstill,” we need some energy and a shakeup.

Washington’s new Burma policy is indeed shaking things up. However, we must be realistic—external forces can only inject a dose of fresh air into political dynamism in Burma. The plain fact is that change must come from within. So we’d better not to wait but make a move of our own.

US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s statement following his visit to Burma and the briefing he gave on his talks there received positive feedback not only in Burma but also in European and Asean capitals.

There’s no doubt that the new US policy is comprehensive. It covers Burma’s pressing issues, including ethnic nationalities, democratization, the 2010 election, the need for national reconciliation and political dialogue, the problem of narcotics and security questions. More importantly, the US has no plans to lift sanctions until it sees progress in these key areas.

The new policy no doubt injected positive energy and some rare hope in Burma. The visit of two high ranking US diplomats also created a good impression, although we all know that it will be a long and difficult process.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made it clear that there is a lot of work to do on Burma, saying: “We have no illusions that any of this will be easy or quick.”

We all know that no one has the magic pill to cure Burma’s ills.

In a message directed at the principal stakeholders, regime leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe and pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, Clinton said Burma’s problems must be resolved by the Burmese people themselves.

It could be a win-win situation if Than Shwe and Suu Kyi wanted to make the most of the positive energy released by the new US initiative and its policy of direct engagement.

It is understandable that many are deeply skeptical about the sincerity of Than Shwe and the slow pace of political progress in Burma. If Than Shwe took a pragmatic approach, however, he could make the next move and strike a deal with Suu Kyi.

The paramount leader of the regime has delivered little of substance in the past two decades. Nonetheless, we all know that the election in 2010 will be his personal exit strategy. He needed a safe passage out of the political arena.

This can be an opportunity for Suu Kyi. She could demonstrate that she is pragmatic and a deal-maker, too. She could show that she is ready to help the national reconciliation and political process to move forward.

Since the mockery trial earlier this year, Suu Kyi is back in the political limelight. She has won enormous support from the international community and her popularity inside the country has no doubt surged.

There are reports in Rangoon that Suu Kyi, who has held talks with Than Shwe in the past, is now asking for further meetings. Recently, she expressed her gratitude to Than Shwe for allowing her to meet diplomats and US officials.

Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), is planning to release an important statement for the nation soon, the party spokesman said. How important for the nation the statement will prove to be remains to be seen.

Political pundits say the NLD statement may include Suu Kyi’s stance on western sanctions and the 2010 election. This indicates that Suu Kyi may make a meaningful and pragmatic offer to Burma’s paramount leader, who wants the Lady to show “respect” and “good behavior.”

A statement by Suu Kyi and her next moves should spell out her own “climate change” policy.



COMMENTS (10)
 
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James O'Brien Wrote:
20/11/2009
I agree that Sr. Gen. Than Shwe's days are numbered. We have seen last days of dictators like Saddam Hussein, Ne Win, Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Pinochet. Idi Amin. Nikolai Ceaucescu. Crazy ones like Nero.

Than Shwe can't live forever and the blood feud he has created with everyone will not easily go away.

The question is: will the system change to a more democratic one?

It does no good if a younger dictator replaces an older one.

Read about all the last days of all the above mentioned, and you will truly believe in Buddhist karma.


plan B Wrote:
16/11/2009
Jim O'Brien
"Most of the exile groups or personalities are also jumping on the engagement band wagon or gravy train for funding, even for free trips."
You must be really out of your mind. To suggest these allegation without proof given your blog here:
http://mtmblog.blogspot.com/
"It's a great tragedy to be alive to see all this in Burma."
Please go ahead and end it all.
It is bad enough that Dr Kyi May Kaung will say such here:
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/01/23/steinberg-vs-kyi-may-kaung-burma-debate-continues/
What are your stakes beyond wanting to see the SPDC being punished?
Anti-sanctions proponents are made up of different entities, among which some are for the betterment of the citizenry regardless of retaining ultra fine tune against the SPDC if possible.
If your objection is dealing with the SPDC you should spell out clearly why not and also admit to the unintended consequences.



Kyaik-Ka-San Wrote:
15/11/2009
Climate change is vital to a country, society and daily life of a community. It is an indivisible part of our daily life. The SPDC wanted and played with the “climate change” as a political tool hoping to stay another 20 years in Burma. But natural process is against their tide finally.

The junta realized the consequences of their playing tricks on the peaceful people with consistent “brutal climate.” They are frustrated, hopeless and anxious about the “windy climate” blowing overnight from all directions. They start feeling a “hot climate” is coming soon as a result of their immoral behavior. The generals clearly know that their crimes will not be escaped from the “compel climate” but to step down quietly.

Intimidation and bullying will not rescue those who care for nobody and apply “evil climate” against the will of the civilized people. The junta will surely be gone with the “Stormy People Center Wind” for their acts of Ah-Dhamma.


plan B Wrote:
15/11/2009
DASSK's moves will be important regardless of the climate change analogy.
As it is, the past insistence on a start that will ensure SPDC demise, albeit legitimate, has had led nowhere near the desired effect but rather more misery for the commoners.
This time around, if common sense dictates, she should be choosing the underdog status. However, as the true uniter that she must be, even at that less than desirable position, she can truly expedite the needed change that will not take as long as the "climate change" analogy.
Spell out she must but ever so carefully. The SPDC and the West will again be at loggerheads with another two decades of useless continued status quo that hurt the people more.

tocharian Wrote:
15/11/2009
I have to chuckle when I see Burmese exile groups scrambling to react to the new US policy, but ASSK seems to know what she's doing so let her decide. Anyway I don't know of any serious exile group operating from, say, China, except perhaps the UWSA (a BCP relic).

All exiles, especially the ethnics, are supported by and get political asylum in the West, so stop pretending that you don't know whose side you are on. Don't be a bunch of hypocrites!

In spite of this last ditch attempt by the USA to do Realpoitik in Burma, I still predict that within the next 10 years Burma will become de facto a Chinese colony. It will be ruled by a "military controlled quasi-democracy", without real human rights for the people (including the ethnics). This is very much like in China. Most of the economy will be controlled by Chinese, including Singaporeans, Chinese merchants who already live in Burma and their cronies like Tay Za, Than Shwe's grandson, etc.
The Burmese should start eating with chopsticks!

George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
14/11/2009
You can't let killers, much less monk murderers, get away, can you?
The least you can do is show pity and leniency in case they repent and cooperate, of course.
God gave the Ten Commandments and people made laws for all to follow and live by in harmony and happiness forever.
The bottom line is there is no place for outlaws, renegades and killers, much less monk murderers in this world.
And, most importantly, nobody is above the law.
Men can make climates to change but at their own cost and detriment, also.
However, a man cannot change laws made by men, much less by God, in the interest of man also, lest Than Shwe and his thugs forget!
That goes for Daw Suu and all others also.
She can't bail out the monk murderer on her own, much less return to hold the helm of the country ,which she wouldn't do either, trust me.
The only exit strategy for Than Shwe is by surrendering to the law and cooperating at best in return for pity and leniency for him and his family.
Even Hitler and Tojo had to pay for their crimes.

Oo Maung Gyim Wrote:
14/11/2009
At present, the NLD stand is very important and should be dynamic. They should take political advice from veteran politicians. Those politicians are well matured and really love the country. Among those politicans are U Ye Myint, U Nyunt Thein, Naing Gwe Thein, U Min Lwin.
General Tin Oo should be released for the sake of his previous role in the army and who fought the KMT and Communists and also he is a person who has been decorated Thura by a democratically elected government.

Time is running out, so Snr-General Than Shwe and Aung San Suu Kyi should meet and resolve the country's problems soon.

Tom Tun Wrote:
14/11/2009
From this Ko Aung Zaw article, a few things come into my mind.

(1) Future political climate in Burma. In 1962 to 1988, Ne win introduce Burmese Way of Socialism. We all know what happened. Now, Than Shwe start introducing Burmese way of Democracy. Where will Burma go?

(2) Than Shwe is searching for his safe exit, as well as Burma need a good starting point of peace, prosperity, liberty and justice. Can Burma trade their future and the safety of Than Shwe and his group? Than Shwe and his group must get out of Burma politic and administration.

(3) DASSK is showing her willingness to both Burmese Regime and Obama administration. How honest Burmese regime and Obama administration to Burmese people. US is started to talk about 2008 constitution is the matter of Burma, so Burma have to solve it's own. How powerful are Burmese people to solve constitution problems and stand up against Burmese regime?

(4) Are we getting play here again?

James O'Brien Wrote:
14/11/2009
We have to be very careful with this, and keep close watch.

Most of the exile groups or personalities are also jumping on the engagement band wagon or gravy train for funding, even for free trips.

Aung San Suu Kyi has been isolated from the world for quite some time, so has the NLD to some extent.

She has asked to see the Sr. Gen. but meanwhile Gen. Than Shwe is going for lessons to Sri Lanka (maybe he wants to learn how they eliminated the Tamil Tigers)

He's saying certain neocolonialists (read Western governments) are pressuring Burma.

"Burmese people" is a code word, but it is not equivalent to "the SPDC."

Suu Kyi too may give away too much politically because of course she is negotiating from a position of weakness, not strength. She also is in the end game, cornered and with few moves left and all her chess pieces taken away and imprisoned.

It's a great tragedy to be alive to see all this in Burma.

Pro-trade, anti-sanctions people are jumping for joy.

timothy Wrote:
13/11/2009
"2010 election will be Than Shwe`s exit strategy". Who said this? Does Than Shwe believe in it? His grandson had caused havoc in business circles in Burma and hit a son of a general. Lucky for Than Shwe. Ne Win went to jail when similar incidents happened as he was retired. Nay Shwe Thwe will hit again and Than Shwe must make sure that he is healthy and still in power. There is no such things as safe retirement for Than Shwe. He must hand over power to Daw Suu and get into Buddhist monk's life before he gets ill and dies. That is the exit strategy for Than Shwe. Time is quickly running out for Than Shwe to prepare for the next life.



More Articles in This Section

bullet The Next Big Step

bullet The Facts Remain the Same

bullet Time to Inject Pragmatism

bullet Playing With Super Powers

bullet Too Soon for Optimism

bullet The World is not Flat

bullet Pressure Off Burmese PM

bullet Asean Should Review Its Engagement Policy with Burma

bullet A New Political Environment?

bullet The Message from Oslo


 

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