COMMENTARY
Climate Change and Aung San Suu Kyi
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By AUNG ZAW |
Friday, November 13, 2009
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The regime in Burma is like climate change—if you don’t contain it now, it could be catastrophic. Seeing Burma going nowhere over the past decades, friends and foes of the regime have reached the consensus that the country needs to make meaningful progress. To achieve momentum in the land of “standstill,” we need some energy and a shakeup. Washington’s new Burma policy is indeed shaking things up. However, we must be realistic—external forces can only inject a dose of fresh air into political dynamism in Burma. The plain fact is that change must come from within. So we’d better not to wait but make a move of our own. US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s statement following his visit to Burma and the briefing he gave on his talks there received positive feedback not only in Burma but also in European and Asean capitals. There’s no doubt that the new US policy is comprehensive. It covers Burma’s pressing issues, including ethnic nationalities, democratization, the 2010 election, the need for national reconciliation and political dialogue, the problem of narcotics and security questions. More importantly, the US has no plans to lift sanctions until it sees progress in these key areas. The new policy no doubt injected positive energy and some rare hope in Burma. The visit of two high ranking US diplomats also created a good impression, although we all know that it will be a long and difficult process. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made it clear that there is a lot of work to do on Burma, saying: “We have no illusions that any of this will be easy or quick.” We all know that no one has the magic pill to cure Burma’s ills. In a message directed at the principal stakeholders, regime leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe and pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, Clinton said Burma’s problems must be resolved by the Burmese people themselves. It could be a win-win situation if Than Shwe and Suu Kyi wanted to make the most of the positive energy released by the new US initiative and its policy of direct engagement. It is understandable that many are deeply skeptical about the sincerity of Than Shwe and the slow pace of political progress in Burma. If Than Shwe took a pragmatic approach, however, he could make the next move and strike a deal with Suu Kyi. The paramount leader of the regime has delivered little of substance in the past two decades. Nonetheless, we all know that the election in 2010 will be his personal exit strategy. He needed a safe passage out of the political arena. This can be an opportunity for Suu Kyi. She could demonstrate that she is pragmatic and a deal-maker, too. She could show that she is ready to help the national reconciliation and political process to move forward. Since the mockery trial earlier this year, Suu Kyi is back in the political limelight. She has won enormous support from the international community and her popularity inside the country has no doubt surged. There are reports in Rangoon that Suu Kyi, who has held talks with Than Shwe in the past, is now asking for further meetings. Recently, she expressed her gratitude to Than Shwe for allowing her to meet diplomats and US officials. Her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), is planning to release an important statement for the nation soon, the party spokesman said. How important for the nation the statement will prove to be remains to be seen. Political pundits say the NLD statement may include Suu Kyi’s stance on western sanctions and the 2010 election. This indicates that Suu Kyi may make a meaningful and pragmatic offer to Burma’s paramount leader, who wants the Lady to show “respect” and “good behavior.” A statement by Suu Kyi and her next moves should spell out her own “climate change” policy.
 COMMENTS (21)
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Tide,
Your assertions portray a reminder of the scenes of roadside magic shows frequented in downtown Rangoon nearly half a century ago. One beat the drum to gather the pedestrians, the other in his tongue in cheek rambled on with some cheap urban myths together with a few hand tricks to entertain. Ultimately with the false admirations of bogus onlookers they sold useless pieces of marble at seemingly affordable prices to the innocent crowd who were made believe they were sorcerer stones. Kudos the art of living! No offence intended, do you believe Burmese people are that stupid? |
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George Than Setkyar Hiene Wrote: |
27/11/2009 |
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Yes, Garrett!
Only the people of Burma hold the key to their future and posterity.
China, India, ASEAN nor even US could change that.
Than Shwe and his thieves are running wild because the people of Burma are letting them.
Once the people say ENOUGH IS ENOUGH then Than Shwe and his gang would be in history.
Of course China, India, Russia, Singapore, Thailand and others in the region should be held accountable for Burma's woes as well.
The South Korean-led UN also has no teeth nor tendon to do its job given that China and Russia are selling their veto weapons to Than Shwe and his gang.
And the US is a lame duck with a half heart for freedom and democracy specifically in Burma's case where a freedom fighter and democracy icon is being bullied and brutalized by a monk murderer prostituting himself to next door Chinese communists covering his ass in return for letting the communists take over the country as one of their provinces.
Let's see the rest on the silver screen is all we can say. |
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3) The past acts of two decades has effected an almost impossible reconciliation between the NLD, DASSK and the SPDC.
4) The SPDC has become even more xenophobic .
5) The SPDC can now be defiant.
6) The ongoing ethnic problem is not as simple as the West thinks.
7) The inadvertent consequences of the past two decades on the citizenry plight.
8) Still blaming the SPDC for all the tragic consequences of Nargis.
If these facts denied are not recognized, then it is as justifiable for the SPDC to state all these atrocities, suppressions, greed and holding on to power that has been committed is OK under the premises of keeping Myanmar in one piece.
So tell me tide "Who should jump first and how high?
At least DASSK is trying to jump albeit unsuccessfully because of SPDC disdain.
Anyone who believes the SPDC will jump before any West contrition is as ignorant as some posters here. Especially the ones who believe everything they read in the western media. |
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Tide
The learning curve is indeed a steep one. I wish that it has been the brother Ko Aung San U. Spilt milk need to move on.
We have come far in this forum to be able to state the mistakes DASSK made.
The facts remain:
1) In spite of and despite the past, the West still supports DASSK. Depending on your vantage, this can be good or bad.
2) There is really no alternative so far. One of the contesting parties might prove to be a surprise to all.
Undoing the false perception of DASSK is the answer to every Myanmar's ill but is going to be a "Bear" of an effort.
There is still a lot of denial about the need for a major SPDC involvement in any form of government.
So here we are with these facts:
1) We need the SPDC but nobody will admit to that fact.
2) The SPDC has overcome the past two decades of relentless persecution by the West, UN and any Joe Blow who wants to make a name.
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Garrett Wrote: |
25/11/2009 |
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The climate change comparison is spot-on due to the flawed-science behind the concept of human-induced global warming.
Engagement with the SPDC is like the theoretical model-based sciences which are behind the global warming scare.
I recently saw a "science" program dealing with the melting glaciers in Greenland which were attributed to "Global Warming" without a single word mentioned about the impact of geo-thermal forces at work in the region.
It was just as the persecution of the ethnic peoples of Burma often goes unmentioned.
Funds which could be used to combat hunger and disease are wasted on scare tactic theories and research which does nothing but make scientists rich, just as lifting sanctions will do nothing to change poverty, hunger and disease in Burma, only make the SPDC and their cronies wealthier.
Just as one volcano could cancel out twenty years without fossil fuels overnight, the Burmese people's actions could cancel out the influence of China in Burma overnight. |
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Hi Plan B - no hard feelings mate...but how could you come up with this sort of nonsense idea? Who says Suu Kyi is the key to bring about unity? That's what you all dream. She may be as good as a poster image, but she has no ability whatsoever to bring everyone together. Ethnic groups may come along while a lot of them will make use of her, but she can't bring the military to the unified table. She, from the beginning, wanted to kick the military out. How strategically stupid she is! The military may be as dangerous as you all want it to be, but the reality is that without the military we can't move on. They hold the key, not Suu Kyi nor you nor I nor the international community. Suu Kyi only does what her white papas ask her to do so. She self-images as a typical Myanmar woman, but she looks up to the West. Please do not think I am rude. Sorry mate. Take care!
Cheers! |
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MW
The SPDC is unique compared to Ne Win for these reasons:
1) It is forged out of western careless sanctions, a genuine survivalist unlike Ne Win supported by the west. Therefore it will be defiant to the end.
2) It is as Burmese as it can be. You won't understand the significant of this aspect unless you are Burmese or at least an Asian.
3) It is genuinely xenophobic unlike Ne Win who used that as an excuse. In the SPDC leader's mind the last two decades of western treatment is tantamount to insult beyond apology.
4) The SPDC believes sincerely that they are the last barrier to Myanmar disintegrating.
These are just some characteristics of the SPDC no one can deny and yet the West refuses even to consider them.
The empty "let's talk" is the proof.
Already all the yahoos are declaring "tried before, therefore it won't work".
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Tide
The SPDC is indeed the tip of the "Climate Change iceberg." Unfortunately. as climate change goes, the West has not fully accepted the facts:
There is such an element. A denial, if recognized, will entail:
1) That they are partly responsible for the SPDC
2) Their next approach must not be an SOS from last round.
3) There might not be another 2 decades before becoming DPRM. With #1 as beloved leader.
Ko Aung Zaw's analogy is absolutely right on. The urgency is well pointed out.
The ethnic groups are fragmented enough for the SPDC to take easy advantage of.
DASSK made the wrong choice back in 1990 with ethnic support.
This time around, hopefully with the same ethnic support, this CCI can be slowed if not reversed.
As much as you and I might like to disagree about this fact:
DASSK is the ONLY figure that can bring about the unified strength of the ethnic groups.
Until another figure emerges, DASSK is the only catalyst for changes.
Ko Aung ZAw is right. |
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Plan B,
Would it be impertinent too to ask why and in what way(s) the SPDC is unique?
And how is this uniqueness going to shape up the current interlude in the monotonous drama that is "The dictator and its citizenry," lingering on Burma's political stage? |
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I have great respect for Aung Zaw as a human being. But this is the worst analogy that he has ever made in his professional work.
Climate change and ASSK - what a pathetic analogy. It shows the arrogance of the Irrawaddy, not paying equal respect to the rest of the ethnic groups.
Many observers think that ethnic groups have been sidelined by the military. In fact, since the 1990 election, they have been intentionally marginalized by the NLD, its leaders and supporters.
If ASSK is framed as an important figure (climate change), then what about the rest of the ethnic groups. Are they useless in changing Myanmar's political climate? Myanmar's politics, centering on ASSK, MUST BE ABANDONED IMMEDIATELY if you all truly want fair and free elections leading towards democracy. |
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James O'Brien,
You are indeed grasping for straws in your associating #1 with all these repugnant historical figures.
Even associating Ne WIn and Than Shwe would have made you a quasi-intelligible orientalist albeit unlike Turnell and Vicary.
However, you chose to associate SPDC with all mentioned. The only similarity is that they are all dictators.
The SPDC is unique and associating it with impertinent others will just continue present impertinent acts that hurt the citizenry more.
So please do us a favor: Show us similarity b/t Ne Win and SPDC beyond "dictator" and I will show you why your association is way out of line.
Incidentally, one fact you might like to know is #1 is not a womanizer let alone a pervert or deviant like the ones you mentioned. |
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James O'Brien Wrote: |
20/11/2009 |
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I agree that Sr. Gen. Than Shwe's days are numbered. We have seen last days of dictators like Saddam Hussein, Ne Win, Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Pinochet. Idi Amin. Nikolai Ceaucescu. Crazy ones like Nero.
Than Shwe can't live forever and the blood feud he has created with everyone will not easily go away.
The question is: will the system change to a more democratic one?
It does no good if a younger dictator replaces an older one.
Read about all the last days of all the above mentioned, and you will truly believe in Buddhist karma.
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Jim O'Brien
"Most of the exile groups or personalities are also jumping on the engagement band wagon or gravy train for funding, even for free trips."
You must be really out of your mind. To suggest these allegation without proof given your blog here:
http://mtmblog.blogspot.com/
"It's a great tragedy to be alive to see all this in Burma."
Please go ahead and end it all.
It is bad enough that Dr Kyi May Kaung will say such here:
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2007/01/23/steinberg-vs-kyi-may-kaung-burma-debate-continues/
What are your stakes beyond wanting to see the SPDC being punished?
Anti-sanctions proponents are made up of different entities, among which some are for the betterment of the citizenry regardless of retaining ultra fine tune against the SPDC if possible.
If your objection is dealing with the SPDC you should spell out clearly why not and also admit to the unintended consequences.
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Kyaik-Ka-San Wrote: |
15/11/2009 |
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Climate change is vital to a country, society and daily life of a community. It is an indivisible part of our daily life. The SPDC wanted and played with the “climate change” as a political tool hoping to stay another 20 years in Burma. But natural process is against their tide finally.
The junta realized the consequences of their playing tricks on the peaceful people with consistent “brutal climate.” They are frustrated, hopeless and anxious about the “windy climate” blowing overnight from all directions. They start feeling a “hot climate” is coming soon as a result of their immoral behavior. The generals clearly know that their crimes will not be escaped from the “compel climate” but to step down quietly.
Intimidation and bullying will not rescue those who care for nobody and apply “evil climate” against the will of the civilized people. The junta will surely be gone with the “Stormy People Center Wind” for their acts of Ah-Dhamma.
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DASSK's moves will be important regardless of the climate change analogy.
As it is, the past insistence on a start that will ensure SPDC demise, albeit legitimate, has had led nowhere near the desired effect but rather more misery for the commoners.
This time around, if common sense dictates, she should be choosing the underdog status. However, as the true uniter that she must be, even at that less than desirable position, she can truly expedite the needed change that will not take as long as the "climate change" analogy.
Spell out she must but ever so carefully. The SPDC and the West will again be at loggerheads with another two decades of useless continued status quo that hurt the people more. |
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tocharian Wrote: |
15/11/2009 |
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I have to chuckle when I see Burmese exile groups scrambling to react to the new US policy, but ASSK seems to know what she's doing so let her decide. Anyway I don't know of any serious exile group operating from, say, China, except perhaps the UWSA (a BCP relic).
All exiles, especially the ethnics, are supported by and get political asylum in the West, so stop pretending that you don't know whose side you are on. Don't be a bunch of hypocrites!
In spite of this last ditch attempt by the USA to do Realpoitik in Burma, I still predict that within the next 10 years Burma will become de facto a Chinese colony. It will be ruled by a "military controlled quasi-democracy", without real human rights for the people (including the ethnics). This is very much like in China. Most of the economy will be controlled by Chinese, including Singaporeans, Chinese merchants who already live in Burma and their cronies like Tay Za, Than Shwe's grandson, etc.
The Burmese should start eating with chopsticks! |
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George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote: |
14/11/2009 |
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You can't let killers, much less monk murderers, get away, can you?
The least you can do is show pity and leniency in case they repent and cooperate, of course.
God gave the Ten Commandments and people made laws for all to follow and live by in harmony and happiness forever.
The bottom line is there is no place for outlaws, renegades and killers, much less monk murderers in this world.
And, most importantly, nobody is above the law.
Men can make climates to change but at their own cost and detriment, also.
However, a man cannot change laws made by men, much less by God, in the interest of man also, lest Than Shwe and his thugs forget!
That goes for Daw Suu and all others also.
She can't bail out the monk murderer on her own, much less return to hold the helm of the country ,which she wouldn't do either, trust me.
The only exit strategy for Than Shwe is by surrendering to the law and cooperating at best in return for pity and leniency for him and his family.
Even Hitler and Tojo had to pay for their crimes. |
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Oo Maung Gyim Wrote: |
14/11/2009 |
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At present, the NLD stand is very important and should be dynamic. They should take political advice from veteran politicians. Those politicians are well matured and really love the country. Among those politicans are U Ye Myint, U Nyunt Thein, Naing Gwe Thein, U Min Lwin.
General Tin Oo should be released for the sake of his previous role in the army and who fought the KMT and Communists and also he is a person who has been decorated Thura by a democratically elected government.
Time is running out, so Snr-General Than Shwe and Aung San Suu Kyi should meet and resolve the country's problems soon. |
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Tom Tun Wrote: |
14/11/2009 |
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From this Ko Aung Zaw article, a few things come into my mind.
(1) Future political climate in Burma. In 1962 to 1988, Ne win introduce Burmese Way of Socialism. We all know what happened. Now, Than Shwe start introducing Burmese way of Democracy. Where will Burma go?
(2) Than Shwe is searching for his safe exit, as well as Burma need a good starting point of peace, prosperity, liberty and justice. Can Burma trade their future and the safety of Than Shwe and his group? Than Shwe and his group must get out of Burma politic and administration.
(3) DASSK is showing her willingness to both Burmese Regime and Obama administration. How honest Burmese regime and Obama administration to Burmese people. US is started to talk about 2008 constitution is the matter of Burma, so Burma have to solve it's own. How powerful are Burmese people to solve constitution problems and stand up against Burmese regime?
(4) Are we getting play here again? |
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James O'Brien Wrote: |
14/11/2009 |
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We have to be very careful with this, and keep close watch.
Most of the exile groups or personalities are also jumping on the engagement band wagon or gravy train for funding, even for free trips.
Aung San Suu Kyi has been isolated from the world for quite some time, so has the NLD to some extent.
She has asked to see the Sr. Gen. but meanwhile Gen. Than Shwe is going for lessons to Sri Lanka (maybe he wants to learn how they eliminated the Tamil Tigers)
He's saying certain neocolonialists (read Western governments) are pressuring Burma.
"Burmese people" is a code word, but it is not equivalent to "the SPDC."
Suu Kyi too may give away too much politically because of course she is negotiating from a position of weakness, not strength. She also is in the end game, cornered and with few moves left and all her chess pieces taken away and imprisoned.
It's a great tragedy to be alive to see all this in Burma.
Pro-trade, anti-sanctions people are jumping for joy. |
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timothy Wrote: |
13/11/2009 |
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| "2010 election will be Than Shwe`s exit strategy". Who said this? Does Than Shwe believe in it? His grandson had caused havoc in business circles in Burma and hit a son of a general. Lucky for Than Shwe. Ne Win went to jail when similar incidents happened as he was retired. Nay Shwe Thwe will hit again and Than Shwe must make sure that he is healthy and still in power. There is no such things as safe retirement for Than Shwe. He must hand over power to Daw Suu and get into Buddhist monk's life before he gets ill and dies. That is the exit strategy for Than Shwe. Time is quickly running out for Than Shwe to prepare for the next life. |
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