Here’s a fact: Burma is an unstable neighbor and a headache for China because of the constant troubles that arise in the military-ruled country with which Beijing has forged a “fraternal relationship.”

So don’t be surprised if China begins to adjust its Burma policy. Chinese leaders are reportedly unhappy with the endless negative press reports on Burma which frequently mention China’s support. 

The press coverage on the bizarre trial of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma’s secret missions to Pyongyang and Burma’s unsettled issue with ethnic insurgents along the Sino-Burmese border are all part of  China’s concerns.

Of course, Beijing is not going to ask Burma to introduce democracy or demand the release of Suu Kyi and all political prisoners.

These issues are, according to Beijing’s official stance, internal affairs of Burma and the Burmese themselves should settle those issues. However, China realizes that backing the recalcitrant regime can be costly.

Thus, we are already seeing a subtle policy shift by Beijing’s leaders.

When foreign ministers from Asean and the EU held a meeting in Hanoi in May, Beijing joined the Burma-bashing ministers from Western countries and did not shy away from criticizing the junta over the Suu Kyi trial.

Curiously, Beijing has been increasingly expanding its network to establish contacts with dissident groups in exile. Chinese officials from various government departments based in Yunnan Province, which borders Burma, often come to Thailand to meet exiled Burmese groups, and the frequency of visits has increased—in addition, China has recently did not object to conferences and seminars discussing the Burma issues. This is something the Chinese have learned from watching Burmese exiled-based civil society groups operating in Thailand. 

Recently, the National League for Democracy (NLD), Burma’s main opposition party, sent letters to the Chinese embassy in Rangoon, a sign that the NLD sees China as a potential positive influence.

The question arises: is Beijing looking for alternatives in Burma? 

Let’s be frank: China isn’t interested in Burma becoming a democratic nation. It isn’t voicing complaints about human rights issues; It wants to see a strong and stable regime that can develop economic prosperity and peace in the country.

At the same time, China may be in the process of hedging its bets on Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s regime as the future of Burma.

A case in point: during Maung Aye’s visit to Beijing in June, the two countries signed three documents that included an agreement on economic and technical cooperation, a memorandum of agreement on development, operation and transfer of hydropower projects in Maykha, Malikha and upstream of the Irrawaddy-Myitsone river basin, and a memorandum of understanding relating to development, operation and management of the Burmese-China crude oil pipeline project.

It’s understandable that China wanted to sign these agreements before the election in 2010.

The Burmese press hailed Maung Aye’s visit in the state-run newspapers, claiming that China will protect Burma’s interests in the international arena.

But there’s a trade-off for that protection, and Burma has opened itself up to being influenced by Chinese ideas on how to achieve national reconciliation.

One internal Burmese problem that China wants fixed is the regime’s relationship to the restless ethnic groups along the Sino-Burmese border.

China appears to be supportive of an effort to create autonomous governing regions for Burma’s ethnic minority groups, based on the Middle Kingdom’s own experience with minority groups in China.

In April, the junta ordered all ethnic ceasefire armed group to transform their armies into a border guard force, to operate under the Burmese army. China was not impressed, according to reports. So far, the regime has not forced the issue.

Almost all ceasefire groups, including the largest non-state armed group, the United Wa State Army, have refused to take part.

Wa and Kachin ethnic leaders, who previously received political and military backing from China, sent a letter in December 2008 to Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. The letter outlined the ethnic dilemma in Burma as it relates to the 2008 constitution.

In part, the letter said: “We solemnly ask the Chinese government to relay our request to the Myanmar [Burma] government: first, we support the constitutional reform. When the new government forms in 2010, the leadership based on national public election should promise to leaders of the autonomous states [that they] will be part of the high leadership of the new government… [and] build upon the method of management of China’s autonomous region.