Junta: You Will Win If You Use Suu Kyi Seriously

Believe it or not, Aung San Suu Kyi has prolonged the lifespan of Burma’s repressive junta.

Provided that history repeats itself—and the present discussion fails—she would again have served her purpose. Her sincere statements and pictures of her with the generals are all the junta needs to keep itself in power.

Something as simple as Suu Kyi's recent public statement has raised hopes for a genuine dialogue, while also prolonging the lifespan of the generals. Perhaps her statement alone can give the junta another five years to manipulate events to its advantage.

For example, in 1994, when Suu Kyi was under house arrest, the generals, including junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe, met with her. It was their first encounter since she had been put in detention in 1989. Later the state-run media ran pictures of Suu Kyi with the generals, giving the world the impression that “talks” were taking place.

In 1995, Suu Kyi was released from house arrest after having completed the maximum term of her six-year-detention. No talks ever occurred.

In September 2000, she was again arrested for attempting to make a political trip to Mandalay. In May 6, 2002, when she was released, everyone thought a political breakthrough was imminent.

The junta released a statement, titled “Turning of a New Page," which said: “Today marks a new page for the people of Myanmar [Burma] and the international community. As we look forward to a better future, we will work toward greater international stability and improving the social welfare of our diverse people.”

Suu Kyi said in her statement: “Both sides agree that the phase of confidence building is over. We look forward to moving across to a more significant phase."

The word "dialogue" raises people's hope. Sadly, the "dialogue" evaporated by May 2003 when Suu Kyi’s motorcade was ambushed near Depayin by junta-backed thugs and hundreds of people were killed. After that, she was again sentenced to house arrest. 

Later, the world clearly learned that the “dialogue” of May 2002 was a fraud. Former UN Special Envoy Razali Ismail, quoting Suu Kyi, wrote that “…the dinner with the generals was in fact a monologue with the senior general doing all the talking.”     

Fast forward to November 2007, following the junta’s bloody crackdown on the monk-led demonstrations. The generals have again manipulated events to get pictures showing Suu Kyi, the junta's liaison officer Aung Kyi and UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari together, again raising hopes for a "dialogue."

And, again, Suu Kyi herself raised hopes in her most recent statement, released on November 8: “In the interest of the nation, I stand ready to cooperate with the government in order to make this process of dialogue a success and welcome the necessary good offices' role of the United Nations to help facilitate our efforts in this regard.”

Suu Kyi is said to be “very optimistic” about the prospects for national reconciliation between the military government and pro-democracy groups. An NLD spokesperson said that she believed the military generals now have the will to achieve national reconciliation.

If history repeats itself, her pictures and words will again give the generals more time, and time for the UN and the world to forget.

It's really a game of doubles, as they say in the world of spies. In other words, she is using the junta, trying to achieve her goals.

And the junta is using Suu Kyi, trying to manipulate her—and all the people who want change to come to Burma.

Undoubtedly, Suu Kyi is willing to be used, if there's a chance that the Burmese people will benefit. But by taking that chance, the junta is given more time to draw out each step of the process that may—or may not—lead to genuine dialogue.

Time is all the junta really wants.

Another example: the junta's self-appointed National Convention was tasked to draft guidelines to write a constitution. Amazingly, it has taken 14 years to accomplish the task, finally completed in September.  

Being aware of the time issue, Suu Kyi emphasized a timeframe in her most recent statement: “I expect that this phase of preliminary consultations will conclude soon so that a meaningful and time-bound dialogue with the SPDC [State Peace and Development Council] leadership can start as early as possible.” 

This time around, there is more skepticism within the international community about what the junta says and does. When the UN Special Envoy briefed the UN Security Council on Tuesday and credited the regime with taking positive steps toward a dialogue, many Western diplomats expressed doubts about the regime’s sincerity.  

In fact, the ball has been in the junta’s court for decades. They have simply never wanted to engage the other side.