It's Game Time Again for the Generals

It’s time for Burma’s ruling generals to play the game again. Since 1988, they have played three significant political games: the cancelled election, the National Convention and the seven-step roadmap to democracy.

Each time, its aim is clear: find a way to defuse mounting international and internal pressure to change the status quo.

Now, it's game time again. On Monday, the junta appointed a deputy labor minister, Aung Kyi, to be a "Minister of Relations," a liaison officer to work with detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The international community will see the appointment as a significant move. Yes, it seems to be significant because it's the first time a "minister for relations" has been created since 1988 when the military junta took power. But, there have been three military officials who have played the liaison officer game with Suu Kyi.

The three high-ranking military intelligence officers, Brig-Gen Than Tun, Maj-Gen Kyaw Win and another Brig-Gen Than Tun (known as Than Tun Lay), ran messages between the junta and Suu Kyi. But they never brought anything significant to the dialogue table.

Is it a joke or is it cause for hope? Let's look at the past.
 
Soon after the military regime took power in 1988 after crushing the pro-democracy movement, it announced it would hold the elections to move toward democracy. The proposal was made when international pressure and political tension inside the country was high following the junta’s brutal crackdown which killed some 3,000 demonstrators across the country and imprisoned thousands of political activists.   

At the time, the junta needed to do something to find a way around the international pressure. It held elections, and they looked serious and genuine. Many political parties, including Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party, ran candidates, and the NLD won by a landslide.

However, the election was simply nullified, and 17 years later the military regime is still in power. Next, to deflect the international outrage over the fraudulent election, in 
1993 the regime initiated the National Convention to draft a constitution which has gone on now for 14 years. The junta announced that the National Convention was successfully concluded in early September but nothing fruitful can be seen from the entire process. Rather, it's viewed as a document through which the regime can hold on to power in a so-called "democratic" system.

Again in 2003, the junta faced a serious political obstacle. Actually, it created the problem. In May of that year, the junta-organized mobs of thugs brutally attacked Suu Kyi’s motorcade in Depayin in Sagaing Division. Suu Kyi and Tin Oo, the vice chairman of the NLD, narrowly escaped the attack while dozens of her supporters were beaten to death. Many people viewed it as a failed attempt to murder Suu Kyi.  

Again, international outrage mounted against the military regime. So, the generals played the game again.

Then Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt announced the seven-step road map for national reconciliation. So far, only the first step of the roadmap, the National Convention, has been completed. The regime never announced a timeframe. Anyway, international clamor eventually faded away, and the junta managed to escape that crisis.
 
So, now we have the current international outrage following the pro-democracy demonstrations led by monks. It's game time again.

In fact, appointing a “Minister for Relations” will buy diplomatic time. You can see it happening already. The state-run newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar, said, “In respect of  Ibrahim A Gambari’s recommendation and in view of smooth relations with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Deputy Minister for Labor U Aung Kyi is assigned duty as Minister for Relations." Here we go again.

The move is just a bribe for Gambari and the UN. At the same time, it is another delaying tactic. Hours after the announcement, some diplomats and activists said the move was quite significant. If they did their research, they might find that it was “significant,” but not for the reason they think.  

What kind of messages did the former liaison officers carry to Suu Kyi? Nothing was ever seen and that is another way to say, they brought nothing.

Having a liaison officer in itself is rather quaint. In fact, how hard could it be to open dialogue between the military leaders and Suu Kyi?

It needs only one condition: the generals must really want to talk. The only thing that's needed is political will. That, unfortunately, is what is lacking.

In 1994 and 2000, Than Shwe met Suu Kyi a couple of times. According to NLD’s members, the dinner discussions were no more than social encounters. At that time, both sides agreed to keep the meetings confidential. The game, again.