Civil Unrest Looms Unless a Political Solution is Found

History is repeating itself in Burma—20 years after the end of Ne Win’s socialist government the present regime is making the same mistake as the one that led to the former dictator’s downfall. From its power base in Naypyidaw, the current military regime is handing down administrative edicts without any regard for the consequences they hold for the Burmese people.

In September 1987, the socialist government unwisely announced the demonetization of the bank notes 25, 35 and 75 kyat, leaving the people with no money in their pockets and leading to the civil unrest that climaxed with the 1988 nationwide uprising.

The similarities between then and now are clear.

When making that demonetization decision, Ne Win gave no prior warning even to his Central Executive Committee of the Burma Socialist Programme Party, but simply ordered it to endorse the decision.

The current regime has derived no lessons or consequences from Ne Win’s action. Exactly 20 years later, in August 2007, Snr-Gen Than Shwe and his regime have committed an identical mistake by issuing an order from their new capital, Naypyidaw, to increase fuel prices immediately, taking by surprise even some responsible senior officials at the Energy Ministry, who only knew of the order on the very day it was issued, according to sources close to one of the officials.
 
A repetition of the economic hardship of 1987 that brought the people out onto the streets, together with increasing socio-political problems, is now driving the country again to the verge of civil unrest. The regime’s high-handed decision to double and triple fuel prices has sparked demonstrations in Rangoon and elsewhere.

Just as in Ne Win’s time, the present regime is seeking scapegoats in order to hide its incompetence to govern the country, singling out leaders of the 88 Generation Students group, who have called persistently for national reconciliation and positive political change.

The regime’s reply has been to accuse the 88 Generation Students group leaders of “undermining peace and security of the State and disrupting the ongoing National Convention,” while arresting 13 prominent group members, including Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Pyone Cho and Min Zeya.
 
If the military regime continues its tough, uncompromising and dishonest stand toward its own people and persists in trying to escape from the reality of the present downward socio-politico-economic situation, the country is likely to again encounter a bloody social uprising in the near future.

To avoid such a calamity, the only solution—which the regime has so far stubbornly rejected—is for the military to relax its long-held grip on power and to sit together with all parties, including the National League for Democracy, ethnic minority parties and ethnic ceasefire groups, and discuss a political resolution of the crisis.

It’s high time the generals came to recognize the real situation of the Burmese people and sought an urgent solution to their sufferings. Otherwise, uncontrolled bloody civil unrest will become a reality and a further scar on Burma’s history.