Hope for the Future

The Irrawaddy speaks with Sunai Phasuk, Thailand consultant for New York-based Human Rights Watch, o­n the prospects for peace in Thailand’s violence-racked southern provinces.

Question: Thai media and much of the population has renewed hope for peace in the South since Thaksin’s ouster. How realistic is this hope?

Answer: People there—Muslim and Buddhist—have every right to be hopeful. But it remains unclear how soon and how serious the new government can make an overhaul of its policy to deal with the escalating insurgency. Equally important is whether or not those militants responsible for daily attacks will cease their attacks because of the political change in Bangkok. I am not very optimistic about both aspects. 

Q: The military leadership in Bangkok has made several promises to undo Thaksin’s mistakes in the South, and it will talk with insurgent groups. Does this mean anything?

A: General Surayud Chulanont acknowledged the southern insurgency as a pressing national crisis in his inaugural speech. Surayud even said that problems in the South are rooted primarily in injustice in the society. Well, General Surayud has talked the talk. Now we need to see some concrete actions from the interim prime minister and the military authority that put him in power. When Thaksin was in office, his decisions and policies exacerbated the situation, giving insurgent groups the motivation to carry out attacks and recruit new members.

Thaksin often set unrealistic deadlines for security personnel to solve cases in the South, which pressured officials to resort to extrajudicial means and human rights violations. In efforts to identify and capture those responsible for many insurgent attacks, a number of Muslim people were arbitrarily arrested, disappeared or killed by the security forces. Promises of investigation and justice appear to be o­nly rhetorical, aiming to defuse criticisms and political pressure. To date, there have still been no criminal prosecutions in the Krue Sae Mosque (April 28, 2004) and Tak Bai (October 25, 2004) incidents, in which nearly 200 Muslims were killed by security forces.

By addressing those cases seriously and following up by criminal investigation to bring those responsible for the abuses to justice, General Surayud can make a difference. This should happen in tandem with the establishment of administrative, security and judicial mechanisms to ensure that the conduct of government officials will be checked and balanced, and that they will be held accountable for any wrongdoings.