Burmese Express Cautious Hope for Dialogue

After a decade of disappointments, Burma watchers are talking softly about the latest signs of life in the country's reconciliation process. "Shouting is better than shooting. Moreover, talking is better than shouting," Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi once said. Now the world is watching once again to see if Suu Kyi's faith in dialogue will finally pave the way for an end to her country's dozen-yearold political deadlock. Burma-observers around the world have given a cautious welcome to the recent disclosure by United Nations special envoy to Burma, Mr. Razali Ismail, that high-level talks have been taking place between Suu Kyi and top officials of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) over the past two months. While no details have been confirmed about the form or substance of the meetings, Rangoon-based diplomats believe that Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, a top strongman in the ruling junta, has met Suu Kyi at least once since she was placed under virtual house arrest on Sept 22. This has prompted speculation about the motives behind the meeting. Some analysts point to a decision in November by the International Labor Organization to impose unprecedented sanctions on the regime for its use of forced labor. Others suggest that "friendly pressure" from countries like Japan and Malaysia has played a role in prompting what may be the first major thaw in relations in more than half a decade. Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamed, in Rangoon a week before the visit by fellow Malaysian Razali, reportedly gave firm advice to the country's military leaders on the need to be more flexible in its dealings with the opposition. Whatever the reasons behind the recent initiative, no one is getting their hopes up yet. "I don't think that the regime has a well-prepared backup plan," said one Burmese political analyst living in exile, adding that it was unlikely the regime was ready to contemplate any sort of power-sharing arrangement with the opposition National League for Democracy. The NLD won a landslide victory in elections held ten years ago. "The generals still believe they are in the position of strength," commented another Burmese exile. "They don't really see the need to make concessions," added the former student activist. Unlike talks held between the generals and Suu Kyi in 1994, the latest signs of dialogue have gone unacknowledged by Burma's state-controlled media. Leading dissidents are also reticent about the possible significance of this latest development. "It is in the very initial stage of a process to establish communication and break the bitterness," commented Naing Aung, former leader of the All Burma Students Democratic Front. "I think it will take time and tremendous patience." Even these words go far beyond the expectations of many ordinary Burmese. "To me, it's just another Torshow' display," said U Ba Kyaw, 50, a Burmese migrant worker in Mae Sot, on the Thai-Burma border. Inside Burma, close observers are also reluctant to set their expectations very high. One journalist in Rangoon cautioned not to read too much into the present situation, noting that both sides have still left themselves plenty of room to back out. One point that has attracted attention is the fact that Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, the regime's Secretary 1, appears to be making a significant gamble by once again entering into some sort of dialogue with the opposition. Some analysts suspect that the powerful intelligence chief may be trying to bolster his waning political fortunes by scoring an international relations victory. "Khin Nyunt is very clever in using the 'international pressure card' to play off against the hardliners in the military," commented Tin Maung Than, a well-known social critic who fled to Thailand late last year. But Khin Nyunt is proceeding with caution. According to unconfirmed reports, preliminary talks with Suu Kyi involved a senior intelligence figure who is close to SPDC Chairman Sr-Gen Than Shwe. Than Shwe is regarded as the power broker between Khin Nyunt and his hard-line rival, Vice-Chairman Gen Maung Aye. Meanwhile, other observers are excited by the possibility of a visit to China by UN special envoy Razali. If the visit actually takes place, it would be an unprecedented move that could bring new forces into play. Some say bringing China into efforts to achieve national reconciliation in Burma could also make Razali's role much more effective. "The envoy's role should be strengthened by the mandate of the [United Nations] Security Council to give it more leverage. China is very important in making Security Council decisions," remarked Win Min, a political science student at Harvard University. While there is hope that bringing new international players into the equation may give fresh impetus to reconciliation efforts, members of Burma's nonBurman ethnic minorities are eager to ensure that their own concerns are adequately addressed.