Silent Treatment

Tokyo has sent its strongest signal yet that it is not going to allow opponents of Burma’s military regime to obstruct the Japanese Way to Democracy. When Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori addressed the United Nations Millennium Summit in New York in early September, events in an obscure village on the outskirts of Burma’s capital were probably the furthest thing from his mind. While other world leaders, including UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, US President Bill Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, called international attention to the crackdown on Burma’s democratic opposition in the Rangoon suburb of Dala, Mori spent most of his five minutes at the microphone raising an issue much closer to the hearts of Japanese policymakers expansion of the UN Security Council’s permanent membership. But as the weeks passed, and National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders remained under house arrest, the Japanese government’s silence became almost deafening. Finally, on September 13, Japanese Foreign Minister Yohei Kono emerged from a 55-minute meeting with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and agreed that the Burmese regime’s September 2 arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders was "totally unacceptable". This unusual display of reticence signified anything but a lack of interest. Over the past year, Tokyo has repeatedly put its diplomatic credibility on the line trying to convince the rest of the world that Burma’s ruling military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is capable of reforming itself. By remaining aloof from the international chorus of condemnation directed at the Burmese generals, Japan has inadvertently drawn attention to what critics see as Tokyo’s growing tendency to ignore the democratic opposition, even as it seeks to expand its own role in Burma’s democratization process. Kei Nemoto, an associate professor of modern Burmese history at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, believes that the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) still "recognizes the NLD as the most important political party in Burma." But as the NLD becomes increasingly critical of Japan’s "psychological support" for the regime, and Tokyo remains intent on maintaining its foothold in Burma, many fear that Japanese foreign-policymakers may be moving to marginalize the party with their silence. Meanwhile, activists in Japan point to a crackdown on a recent protest as further evidence that Japanese officials are taking a tougher stance towards opponents of the SPDC. The arrest and 11-day detention of six Burmese dissidents who handcuffed themselves to the front gate of the Burmese embassy on August 29 was in marked contrast to police handling of another incident last May, in which SPDC supporters physically assaulted several protestors at a concert sponsored by the embassy. No arrests were ever made in that case, despite the testimony of numerous eyewitnesses who could identify the attackers. "Japanese officials look down on us not just us, but also the NLD because they think we can’t win," says Michael Collins, a participant in the August 29th protest and one of the victims of last year’s concert incident. Relations between the Japanese government and Burmese opposition groups both inside Burma and in Japan are more strained now than at any other point in the past decade. And the chances of improvement seem remote, as Japan pushes ahead with a program of democratization in Burma that inspires little confidence in dissidents. Aid, Influence and Democracy Once forming the western extremity of Japan’s WWII-era empire, Burma is still seen by many Japanese politicians as "part of our garden, our sphere of influence," according to Nemoto. The loss of a great deal of this influence to China since 1988, and the desire for access to Burma’s largely untapped economic potential, are generally seen as the key reasons for Japan’s persistent efforts to make a full-scale comeback as the military regime’s chief benefactor. While Japan’s Burma policy is ostensibly linked to improvements in the country’s political situation, many have their doubts about Tokyo’s claims that it is trying to promote democracy. "Frankly speaking, I don’t think the Japanese government has much interest in the democratization of Burma," says Mizuho Fukushima, one of a group of 16 parliamentarians from the opposition Social Democratic Party who on September 2 petitioned MOFA to end its silence on the Dala standoff. She added that MOFA officials assured the SDP delegation that Japan was quietly applying pressure on the regime behind the scenes. Even in other areas, such as economic reform, Tokyo has had limited success in persuading the regime to change its ways.