Thaksin Ruling Could Further Inflame Thai Unrest

BANGKOK — A court ruling on whether Thailand's deposed leader Thaksin Shinawatra should lose his fortune for alleged corruption could become the latest flash point in four years of sometimes-violent political unrest that has exposed deep divisions in Thai society.

The government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is hoping Friday's decision will lead to a return of stability, but it has hedged its bets, imposing a security crackdown around the country and offering safe houses for the court's judges, claiming the pro-Thaksin “Red Shirt" movement may be planning violence.

Supporters of ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra cheer speeches during an anti-government demonstration in December 2009. (Photo: AP)

Political passions have led to years of off-and-on street protests, pitting those who view Thaksin as a corrupt demagogue who bought his way to power against those who benefited from his populist policies and see the military coup that ousted him in September 2006 as a grave injustice orchestrated by a ruling elite scared of change.

The refusal by Thaksin's opponents to accept the results of post-coup elections that saw his allies return to power led to their occupation of the seat of government for several months and seizure of the capital's two airports for a week in 2008. A court ruling that led to the fall of the pro-Thaksin government and Abhisit taking power through parliamentary maneuverings fueled the ire of the Red Shirts, who last year rioted and disrupted a conference of Asian heads of government.

Now, says government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn, "People expect the system to resume functioning normally, the parliamentary system and the economic system. Although we continue to have political differences, the wishes of the people are clear."

Actual evidence of a return to normalcy is slim. Red Shirt leaders boast of plans for a "million-man march" sometime after the verdict. State television nightly broadcasts dire warnings of the nefarious intentions of Thaksin and his followers, repeatedly showing footage of Red Shirt rioting last April that had to be quashed by the army. Newspapers publish endless speculation about a coup in the offing.

The Supreme Court will rule on whether Thaksin, a telecommunications mogul, illegally parked his fortune with family members because he was not allowed to hold company shares while prime minister and whether his 2001-2006 governments implemented policies to benefit his businesses.

If it finds Thaksin guilty — the almost universal assumption is that it will — the court will also decide whether to seize some or all of the $2.29 billion chunk of the family fortune frozen in Thai banks.

For Thaksin's opponents, says political scientist Thitinan Pongsidhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, the case marks "the final act of Thaksin's political decapitation, on the premise that the Red Shirts, the instability, are all because of Thaksin, plus his money, his corruption, manipulation and abuses of power."

"The bottom line is: Are these Reds really about something more than Thaksin? His opponents will say 'No, They're all because of Thaksin.' Instead of saying that the Red Shirts have genuine grievances. Instead of acknowledging that they exist, listening to them."

Such a state of denial, he warns, only intensifies their movement.

Thaksin's supporters say the charges against him are an outrage, part of a vendetta carried out by a ruling class that felt threatened by their hero's popularity — he won two landslide election victories — and is determined to prevent his comeback.

Thaksin — who denies all the charges against him — fled into exile ahead of a 2008 conflict of interest conviction that resulted in a two-year jail sentence.