Low Expectations

Burmese activists are urging US President Barack Obama to put pressure on Burma during the US-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit in Singapore on Sunday, where he is expected to meet Burmese Premier Gen Thein Sein.   

Dissidents have little hope for a meaningful US-Burma breakthrough at the summit, but hope is high that Obama will discuss the Burma issue in light of the new US-Burma policy and recent face-to-face diplomatic meetings.

In Singapore, Obama will hold a first-ever meeting with Asean leaders including Thein Sein, most likely on the sidelines of the annual summit meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum.

Singapore Prime Minister Hsien Loong said recently that pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest, should be released by the military dictatorship.

“I am sure that this will be discussed at the US-Asean Summit,” he said.

Obama left the US on Thursday for his first Asian trip, starting with meetings in Japan and South Korea. He will spend nine days in four countries including Japan, China, Singapore and South Korea. 

Thein Sein will attend the Asean meeting, which marks the 32nd anniversary of Washington’s relations with Asean, a senior Burmese diplomat, Min Lwin, told the Associated Press on Monday.  

Burmese dissident Khin Ohmar, the chairman of the Network for Democracy and Development, an exile organization, said that US and Asean leaders should discuss ways to work together to encourage democratization in Burma.   

“The US should motivate the Asean countries to get involved in the Burma issue,” Khin Ohmar said. 

Aung Moe Zaw, the chairman of the exiled Democratic Party for New Society, said the US should keep pressing for the release of political prisoners including opposition leader Suu Kyi and for democratic reform in Burma.  

“We don’t expect much from this meeting,” he said. “They [U.S and Asean leaders] may not focus on the Burma issue in this meeting.”

It is not known if Obama will meet one-on-one with Thein Sein.

Debbie Stothard, the coordinator of the Alternative Asean Network on Burma, said, “We hope that he [Obama] will be aware of the current human rights situation in the region, particularly Burma.” 

She said that Obama should call on Asean governments to commit to human rights and democracy as necessary components for economic development.

Requirements for democratic change in Burma include the release of political prisoners including Suu Kyi, investigations into crimes against humanity in ethnic minority areas and a Constitutional review, Stothard said.

She said Thein Sein should also deliver some tangible signs of reconciliation if Burma wants to establish better ties with the US.

Thein Sein recently attended the Mekong-Japan summit in Tokyo on Nov. 6-7, only a few days after he met with members of a US delegation in Naypyidaw, the Burmese capital. 

In Tokyo, the Japan government urged the Burmese regime to free Suu Kyi before the 2010 general election.  Japan is ready to provide more support to Burma if it moves toward democratization in Burma, officials said.

A Burma watcher, Jeff Kingston, the director of Asian Studies at Temple University’s Japan campus, said, “I don't expect that Obama will have substantive talks at this point and will not be offering anything to Burma except a process of normalization.”

Obama is well ware of the Burmese junta's track record and will only lift sanctions if there is tangible progress on democracy and human rights in Burma, he said.

“Washington's conditional or pragmatic engagement promises to be a slow and frustrating process because the junta has much to answer for and much to prove,” Kingston said.