Burma: Catching Two Fish at Once?

The visiting US delegation’s talks with the Burmese regime, ethnic minority groups and the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has coincided this week with the news that the China gas pipeline project is finally under way in Arakan State.

Few things are coincidental in Burma, and several analysts questioned whether the timing of the two initiatives was planned by Burma’s generals or whether, in fact, the US and China were competing to win influence among the generals ahead of each other.

Could it be that the pariah state was effectively catching two fish at once? It would surely be a sunny day for the military elite’s bank accounts if they could consolidate their pipeline deal with the Chinese while simultaneously convincing the Americans to lift sanctions.

China's state-owned National Petroleum Corporation announced on Tuesday that construction has finally started on a pipeline that will transfer Middle Eastern and African oil from the Indian Ocean through Burma to Yunnan Province in China’s southwest.

The multimillion dollar pipeline project will also pipe natural gas from Burmese waters in the Bay of Bengal to China.

If Beijing is to revert to talks with Naypyidaw concerning its energy needs, the savings it will make bypassing the Malacca Strait, and a timeline for constructing the pipeline, then it will likely have to curb its criticisms of the junta’s policy to wage war on Chinese-blooded ethnic groups such as the Kokang and the Wa, and reassess its claims for damages caused by Burma’s government forces during their campaigns against the ethnic armies and condone the resulting flood of refugees onto Chinese soil.

The US has moved hastily to overturn the Bush doctrine of sanctions on Burma’s military rulers since the Obama administration came to power earlier this year. After an initial hint by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at engagement with the generals, the US moved quickly into the spotlight in August by sending Senator Jim Webb to Naypyidaw—where he went a full step further than UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon by physically meeting with junta strongman Snr-Gen Than Shwe.

In September, Burmese Premier Thein Sein attended the UN General Assembly in New York, the first time a Burmese leader had done so in 14 years. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Nyan Win took advantage of the cooling climate to meet Webb at the Burmese embassy in Washington.  

Most Burma analysts say the regime is trying to find a balance—it wants to maintain a strong relationship with Beijing (without being entirely dependent on China) while aiming to establish better connections with the new US administration.

To that end, the Burmese authorities on Wednesday allowed a US delegation, led by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, to meet with Suu Kyi, leaders of her National League for Democracy, and some ethnic representatives. 

But most analysts warned that it was too early to be optimistic about results from the US delegation’s visit.

“We can’t expect much from the current visit as the US delegation is just a fact-finding mission,” said Win Min, a Burmese analyst in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

By allowing the US delegation to meet with opposition groups, the regime is relaxing some of its restrictions on dissidents with the aim of having the US lift sanctions on Burma, he said.

Larry Jagan, a British journalist who regularly covers Burma issues, said, “I think this is a part of Than Shwe’s usual approach to international relationships. He is trying to balance China’s influence in Naypyidaw. But, he will keep Burma’s relationship with China strong.” 

Sean Turnell, an economist at Australia's Macquarie University who produces the Burma Economic Watch report, said, “I think the regime are attempting to assert that they are not wholly dependent on China, and see the opening of a dialogue with the US as a way of presenting this.” 

However, he said that sanctions on Burma won't be lifted in the absence of genuine reform in Burma, and he doesn't see any change on this front for the time being.

“For the moment, it's hard to be anything but skeptical. We have been down this road before,” he said.

Another Burma watcher, Jeff Kingston, the director of Asian Studies at Temple University Japan Campus, said that the Burmese generals are looking to balance their dependence on China by pursuing better ties with the US—but only on their own terms.