WASHINGTON — The next few months will be a testing period for the US-Burma relationship, trying to determine if the generals are ready to make meaningful changes in the tightly ruled country, said the advocacy director of Human Rights Watch (HRW).
“It is now up to them [the junta] to respond to the gestures that the administration has made,” Tom Malinowski, the advocacy director of HRW, told US lawmakers during a Congressional hearing here on Burma convened by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Malinowski, who was a special assistant to former US President Bill Clinton and a senior director for foreign policy speech writing at the National Security Council, said the new US Burma policy is realistic.
It doesn't place false hopes in the 2010 elections that the Burmese government is staging or in the new Constitution that it has forced on the people of the country, he said.
“I think it's realistic because the administration considered but rejected the notion that's out there in some circles that a lifting of sanctions against Burma will somehow spark the kind of economic growth and development that we've seen in places like China and Vietnam which then and might in turn over time lead to political change,” he said.
“If sanctions were lifted, essentially the only new investment I think Burma would see would be in the extractive sectors––in oil, gas, gems, timber. It would not transfer intellectual capital or create employment or lead to positive change inside the country.
“It would probably accelerate Burma's transformation into a country like the Democratic Republic of the Congo where foreign companies compete to pull stuff out of the ground in a way that just corrupts and entrenches the local authority,” he said.
He said that the next few months will be a testing period in which the administration is going to talk to the regime and see what it is willing to do.
“Are they going to be willing to allow the National League for Democracy to function more normally as a political party? Are they going to be willing to have a process in which they discuss substantive issues relating to the country's future with the political opposition? Are they going to release political prisoners? Are they going to change the manner in which they're going to organize these elections next year so that there's some chance for a vote that reflects the will of the Burmese people?” he asked.
“Are they going to pull back from the attacks on ethnic minority groups that have created such a humanitarian disaster? Will they even be willing to take small steps in those directions to build our confidence and the confidence of the opposition?” Malinowski asked.
He said there is a possibility that some of those things will happen, but he is skeptical because over the years the regime has shown that it is expert at time management.
“They're good at playing for time,” he said. “I think the more likely explanation is that they'd like to use the dialogue to give themselves the time to focus on their internal political consolidation,” he said.
He cautioned that the administration needs to be very disciplined, and it needs to have a time-bound approach.
“I believe they do need to be willing to enhance, strengthen, and adjust the implementation of the sanctions if over a reasonable period of time progress isn't made,” he said.
In his testimony, Dr Chris Beyrer, a professor of epidemiology at the International Health and Health Behavior and Society School at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said Congress needs to continue to press the administration on implementing an arms embargo.
“An international arms embargo against this regime, particularly while they continue these attacks on ethnic civilians and villages, seems to me critically important. And also the US can support the investigation of crimes against humanity and the referral to the UN Security Council,” he said.
“Whatever happens in the dialogue to come, the crimes that have been committed and the continued impunity of this junta remain a real obstacle to national reconciliation, and I think that investigation of those crimes remains an important part of reconciliation for the future,” Beyer said.
Aung Din of the US Campaign for Burma said US engagement should be carried out within a reasonable time frame.
“If the regime continues arresting democracy activists and attacking ethnic minorities, the United States must respond with tightening sanctions, organizing actions at the UN Security Council, such as the global arms embargo, and the establishment of an inquiry to investigate crimes against humanity in Burma,” he said.
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